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Near-axis seamounts provide a unique setting to investigate three-dimensional mantle processes associated with the formation of new oceanic crust and lithosphere. Here, we investigate the characteristics and evolution of the 8˚20’N Seamount Chain, a lineament of seamounts that extends ~ 175 km west of the East Pacific Rise (EPR) axis, just north of the fracture zone of the Siqueiros Transform Fault. Shipboard gravity, magnetic, and bathymetric data acquired in 2016 are utilized to constrain models of seamount emplacement and evolution. Geophysical observations indicate that these seamounts formed during four distinct episodes of volcanism coinciding with changes in regional plate motion that are also reflected in the development of intra-transform spreading centers (ITSCs) along the Siqueiros transform fault (Fornari et al. 1989; Pockalny et al. 1997). Although volcanism is divided into distinct segments, the magnetic data indicate continuous volcanic construction over long portions of the chain. Crustal thickness variations along the chain up to 0.75 km increase eastward, inferred from gravity measurements, suggest that plate reorganization has considerably impacted melt distribution in the area surrounding the Siqueiros-EPR ridge transform intersection. This appears to have resulted in increased volcanism and the formation of the 8˚20’N Seamounts. These findings indicate that melting processes in the mantle and subsequently the formation of new oceanic crust and lithosphere are highly sensitive to tectonic stress changes in the vicinity of fast-spreading transform fault offsets.

 

Monitoring the activity of subglacial volcanoes along the Aleutian Arc in Alaska is important to the safety of local populations, as well as air traffic flying through the region. However, observations of volcanic unrest are limited by accessibility and resources, particularly at glacier-covered systems, making investigations of their stability challenging. Westdahl Peak, a subglacial volcano on Unimak Island in the Aleutian Arc has experienced significant unrest and uplift since its most recent VEI three eruption in 1991-1992. Given the magnitude of observed uplift, previous investigations suggested the potential for eruption by 2010, but no such event has occurred. One hypothesis to explain this prolonged unrest is that the 1-km thick glacier may increase the stability of the magma system. However, the impact of ice caps and glaciers on the short-term stability of volcanoes is not well understood. In this study, thermomechanical finite element models are used to evaluate how the stability of a glaciated volcano is impacted by variations in ice cap thickness, magma chamber depth, geometry, magma flux rate, and seasonal changes in ice cover thickness. Our numerical experiments indicate that the presence of an ice cap (1–3 km thick) increases the average repose interval for a magma system. Among models with different magma chamber geometries, depths, and flux rates, the greatest increases in repose interval are observed in prolate systems where the increase is up to 57% for a chamber located at 5 km-depth. Spherical and oblate also experience smaller, yet significant, increases in repose interval. Additionally, the percentage increase in repose interval is not impacted by variations in magma flux rate for a given ice cap thickness and magma chamber geometry. However, flux rates do influence the timing of eruptions when the system is experiencing seasonal variations in ice thickness. Our results show that systems with low flux rates are more likely to fail when the ice thickness is at its lowest. The numerical estimates further suggest that the ice cap on Westdahl Peak, which is ∼1 km, may slightly increase the stability of the magma system. In general, given flux rates and magma chamber geometries estimated for the Westdahl system, the repose interval can increase by ∼7 years due to the Westdahl glacier. This increase is small on a geologic scale but is significant on human time scales and the impact of glaciers must be considered in future forecasting efforts. 

Numerical modeling framework tracks volcanic activity and forecasts the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra Volcano, Galapagos. 

Ensemble based data assimilation approaches, such as the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF), have been widely and successfully implemented to combine observations with dynamic forecast models. In this study the EnKF is adapted to assimilate ground deformation observations from interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (InSAR) and GPS into thermomechanical finite element models (FEM) to evaluate volcanic unrest. Two eruption hindcasts are investigated: the 2008 eruption of Okmok volcano, Alaska and the 2018 eruption of Sierra Negra volcano, Galápagos, Ecuador. At Okmok, EnKF forecasts tensile failure and the lateral movement of the magma from a central pressure source in the lead up to its 2008 eruption indicating potential for diking. Alternatively, at Sierra Negra, the EnKF forecasts significant shear failure coincident with a Mw 5.4 earthquake that preceded the 2018 eruption. These successful hindcasts highlight the flexibility and potential of the volcano EnKF approach for near real time monitoring and hazard assessment at active volcanoes worldwide. 

Understanding the stress evolution of extinct volcanoes can improve efforts to forecast flank eruptions on active systems. Field, petrographic, and seismic data are combined with numerical modeling to investigate the paleo‐stress field of New Zealand's Akaroa Volcano, or Akaroa Volcanic Complex. Field mapping identifies 86 radially oriented dikes and seven lava domes found only within a narrow elevation range along Akaroa's erosional crater rim. These observations suggest that crater rim dike emplacement resulted from lateral deflection of vertically ascending intrusions from a centralized magma source, which in turn may have facilitated formation of the lava domes, as well as two scoria cones. We postulate that dike deflection occurred along a stress barrier, as neither a compositional change nor structural boundary are present. We use a finite element model (FEM) simulating Akaroa to test how different factors may have influenced the system's stress state and dike geometry. Elastic, non‐flexural (“roller”) model configurations containing a large, oblate, and shallow magma chamber produce stress barriers most conducive to radial dike emplacement along Akaroa's crater rim. These configurations also simulate rapid edifice construction above a preexisting lithospheric “bulge.” Conversely, simulating flexural stresses exerted on the lithosphere by Akaroa's large mass hinder rather than promote radial dike emplacement. Temperature‐dependent viscoelastic relaxation promotes gradual increases in stress barrier elevation, though this effect is strongly dependent on magma chamber parameters. These results suggest that Akaroa was constructed rapidly (within ∼100 kyr) prior to crater rim dike emplacement, which occurred throughout the volcano's remaining active lifespan.

 

Volcanic seamount chains on the flanks of mid‐ocean ridges record variability in magmatic processes associated with mantle melting over several millions of years. However, the relative timing of magmatism on individual seamounts along a chain can be difficult to estimate withoutin situsampling and is further hampered by Ar⁴⁰/Ar³⁹dating limitations. The 8°20’N seamount chain extends ∼170 km west from the fast‐spreading East Pacific Rise (EPR), north of and parallel to the western Siqueiros fracture zone. Here, we use multibeam bathymetric data to investigate relationships between abyssal hill formation and seamount volcanism, transform fault slip, and tectonic rotation. Near‐bottom compressed high‐intensity radiated pulse, bathymetric, and sidescan sonar data collected with the autonomous underwater vehicleSentryare used to test the hypothesis that seamount volcanism is age‐progressive along the seamount chain. Although sediment on seamount flanks is likely to be reworked by gravitational mass‐wasting and current activity, bathymetric relief andSentryvehicle heading analysis suggest that sedimentary accumulations on seamount summits are likely to be relatively pristine. Sediment thickness on the seamounts' summits does not increase linearly with nominal crustal age, as would be predicted if seamounts were constructed proximal to the EPR axis and then aged as the lithosphere cooled and subsided away from the ridge. The thickest sediments are found at the center of the chain, implying the most ancient volcanism there, rather than on seamounts furthest from the EPR. The nonlinear sediment thickness along the 8°20’N seamounts suggests that volcanism can persist off‐axis for several million years.

 

Surface deformation and seismicity provide critical information to understand the dynamics of volcanic unrest. During 2006–2007, >80 mm/yr uplift was observed by interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) at the central Atka volcanic center, Alaska, coinciding with an increasing seismicity rate. On November 25, 2006, a phreatic eruption occurred at the Korovin volcanic vent, 5‐km north of the central Atka, following the drainage of its crater lake a month prior to the eruption. The InSAR data are assimilated into three‐dimensional finite element models using the Ensemble Kalman Filter to investigate: (1) the pressure source creating the surface deformation; (2) the triggering of the volcano‐tectonic (VT) earthquakes in the Atka volcanic center; and (3) the triggering of the phreatic eruption at Korovin. The models show that the pressure source required to create the surface deformation is a NE‐tilted, oblate ellipsoid, which rotated from steep to gentle dipping from June to November 2006 before the eruption. The modeled dilatancy in a pre‐existing weak zone, coinciding with the Amlia‐Amukta fault, driven by the pressure source has a spatial and temporal correlation with the evolution of the VT earthquakes during the unrest. The fault dilatancy may have increased the connected porosity and permeability of the fault zone allowing fluid injection which triggered the observed seismicity. In addition, the dilatated fault may have increased the fluid capacity of the fault zone by ∼10⁵ m³, causing the discharge of the crater lake at Korovin. Consequently, the phreatic eruption of the Korovin volcano may have been triggered.